Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's Thursday, June 25th, 2026. The market just discovered that "AI demand" and "the Fed might hike" can share the same morning, and nobody knows whether to pop the champagne or hide under the desk.
Yesterday the S&P 500 closed essentially flat, down a rounding error to 7,358, while the Nasdaq slipped and the Dow, naturally, set another record because in the wonderful world of finance the index that matters least always wins on the day that matters most. Everyone spent the session holding their breath for Micron ($MU), and Micron delivered, blowing past estimates and guiding next quarter to fifty billion in revenue, a number so large it sounds like a typo. The stock leapt fifteen percent after the bell, le tout-Wall Street rediscovered that it loves memory chips, and the AI religion got its weekly sermon. Hallelujah. Who actually won here? Micron shareholders, briefly, and every strategist who can now write "AI supercycle intact" without blushing.
And yet. Everyone is pretending not to notice that the bond market spent the same week repricing for Fed hikes, not cuts, with BofA passing the note around like contraband. The dollar is sitting at a one-year high, which is the market's polite way of saying it does not believe the soft-landing fairy tale it keeps reciting. Hawkish, not dovish. Translation: the punch bowl is being eyed, not refilled. Meanwhile Uncle Donald's US-Iran detente reopened the Strait of Hormuz, oil cratered, and the same crowd that screamed "energy shock" a fortnight ago now shrugs as if it never happened. Selective amnesia, the only renewable resource Wall Street produces at scale.
What's ahead: a high-impact data dump at 8:30, all at once, because why suffer once when you can suffer five times. Final Q1 GDP near 1.6 percent, jobless claims around 225k, durable goods, personal income, and the one that actually matters, core PCE, expected near 2.6 percent year over year. Pending home sales at ten, for the three people still pretending to buy a house at these rates. Will anyone care past 8:35? Only if the PCE misbehaves.
The levels, cleanly. Gold has slipped just under 4,000, its first peek below that line since November, the safe haven nobody needs when the dollar plays hero. Oil sits near 69 after its Hormuz haircut. Bitcoin is sulking around 62,800, down again, the canary that forgot how to sing. The 10-year eased toward 4.4 percent, six-week lows, even as everyone insists hikes are coming, because the bond market enjoys contradicting itself before breakfast. S&P futures hover flat, holding their breath for 8:30.
So: a tape that wants to believe in AI forever while quietly bracing for a Fed that may not blink. Good luck reconciling those two before the open. I'm starting to dream of a day with one narrative.
Have a good one, and stay sharp.