Nasdaq futures are up more than a percent this morning because Russian barrels may be coming back, which makes the disinflation plan a logistics question. Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's Monday, October 19, 2026.
Friday finished the job. The S&P closed down about a percent at 7,659, the Nasdaq off two, Micron (MU) and Intel (INTC) each down nearly six. For the week the Nasdaq lost four and a half percent, its worst since June, while the Dow, which owns the least of this story, gained seven tenths. Then China posted third quarter growth over the weekend, the number was fine, and Bitcoin took back eighty two thousand before most of Europe was awake.
The argument now doing the rounds is Scott Bessent's, that September's three point seven percent was an energy shock rather than an inflation problem, the cure being a reopened Hormuz. He may be right about the mechanism. Gasoline did more than half of that print, and Brent has since slid from a hundred and ten as restrictions on Russian crude eased and those barrels went back on the water. So the shock unwinds and the chips are buyable again. Core inflation was two point six. Core does not contain gasoline. The December hike is priced near nine in ten and did not move a basis point on any of this.
The ten year had its largest weekly yield decline in more than a year, in the same five sessions it touched five point three three intraday, the highest since 2002. Both of those happened. Only one made the weekend copy.
Europe opened about a percent lower, which for once is not about semiconductors. France had a violent weekend and the Stoxx is wearing it. From the right tram stop here you can see the French border, and the car park still fills at the usual time, because nothing burning in Paris changes when work starts in Plan-les-Ouates. I have no trade in it. European political risk has been a standing discount for twenty years, and the one time I sized it properly it paid me nothing and cost me a summer of explaining why. On my screen now, gone by Wednesday.
Ahead, almost nothing. Building permits tomorrow, flash PMIs Friday, the Fed quiet until the twenty-eighth, so the week belongs to earnings: Netflix (NFLX) after tomorrow's bell, then Tesla (TSLA), Meta Platforms (META) and IBM (IBM) on Wednesday evening. Three arguments about AI spending in one night, which should settle matters for roughly a day.
Innodata (INOD) is off the book, closed on the fourteenth after fourteen sessions, down about twenty six percent. The close printed at or below twenty percent under our entry and the stop took it, automatic rather than a judgement. The S&P gained about three tenths across those same fourteen sessions, so there is nothing in the tape to blame. In near seventy two, out at fifty three.
Gold is near 4,165 an ounce, WTI around 101, Brent close to 108, Bitcoin about 82,500, and the ten year at 5.07 percent. S&P futures sit a little above 7,700, though my two screens disagree, so take that one loosely.
A week of chip losses, repaired by the prospect of Russian oil moving again. Have a good one.
Salomon