The record
Track record
Every position I have closed, with the date I opened it and the date I closed it. Winners and losers, in one table, kept in full. The thesis behind each one is written for members.
Closed picks
233
Win rate
68%
Avg return
+5.1%
Avg hold
15d
How these numbers are made
This is the whole record. Every position I have closed since inception, in the order it closed. Nothing is withheld and nothing is selected.
Return is the exit price against the entry price, gross. No fees, no slippage, no tax, no position sizing. These are per-position returns, not the return of a portfolio.
Closed positions only. What I hold today is not here, and it is not counted in any figure above.
One name measured against the index over its own short holding window tells you very little, so I do not print that column. The comparison that means something is at the portfolio level.
Shape of the record
Where the closed positions landed. An average hides whether a record came from many steady gains or one outlier.
- < -20%11 position
- -20 to -10%00 positions
- -10 to 0%7474 positions
- 0 to 10%113113 positions
- 10 to 20%3838 positions
- 20 to 50%77 positions
- 50%+00 positions
| Ticker | Company | Entry date | Held | Entry | Exit | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EIX | Edison International | Aug 12, 2026 | 19d | $68.96 | $53.98 | -21.7% |
| CF | Cf Industries Holdings | Aug 12, 2026 | 12d | $118.10 | $128.74 | +9.0% |
| ABBV | AbbVie | Aug 12, 2026 | 8d | $248.17 | $264.56 | +6.6% |
| WBD | Warner Bros | Aug 11, 2026 | 9d | $27.07 | $28.27 | +4.4% |
| CI | Cigna | Aug 11, 2026 | 9d | $271.86 | $275.73 | +1.4% |
| KEY | KeyCorp | Aug 03, 2026 | 17d | $22.80 | $21.97 | -3.6% |
| PANW | Palo Alto Networks | Aug 03, 2026 | 8d | $346.40 | $383.04 | +10.6% |
| BMY | Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | Jul 06, 2026 | 28d | $56.86 | $65.47 | +15.1% |
| CTVA | Corteva | Jul 06, 2026 | 24d | $85.95 | $89.34 | +3.9% |
| TPL | Texas Pacific Land Corporation | Jul 06, 2026 | 19d | $403.34 | $419.44 | +4.0% |
| TPL | Texas Pacific Land | Apr 14, 2026 | 14d | $412.40 | $430.96 | +4.5% |
| HSIC | Henry Schein | Mar 23, 2026 | 30d | $74.46 | $78.15 | +5.0% |
| O | Realty Income | Mar 30, 2026 | 22d | $61.16 | $64.03 | +4.7% |
| IRM | Iron Mountain | Apr 01, 2026 | 20d | $100.96 | $117.81 | +16.7% |
| FCX | Freeport-McMoRan | Mar 24, 2026 | 28d | $56.51 | $67.56 | +19.6% |
| ADI | Analog Devices | Mar 18, 2026 | 34d | $308.65 | $375.42 | +21.6% |
| MCK | McKesson | Apr 01, 2026 | 19d | $872.22 | $858.69 | -1.6% |
| CBOE | Cboe Global Markets | Mar 31, 2026 | 17d | $280.85 | $300.39 | +7.0% |
| AME | Ametek | Mar 24, 2026 | 22d | $217.04 | $230.10 | +6.0% |
| PNC | PNC Financial | Mar 17, 2026 | 27d | $203.85 | $223.06 | +9.4% |
| NEM | Newmont Mining | Mar 25, 2026 | 19d | $101.54 | $116.49 | +14.7% |
| JBHT | JB Hunt | Mar 23, 2026 | 21d | $202.84 | $227.62 | +12.2% |
| GWW | WW Grainger | Mar 24, 2026 | 20d | $1065.96 | $1161.90 | +9.0% |
| GL | Globe Life | Mar 24, 2026 | 20d | $138.60 | $147.56 | +6.5% |
| LH | Labcorp Holdings | Mar 18, 2026 | 23d | $265.80 | $260.93 | -1.8% |
| DLTR | Dollar Tree | Mar 17, 2026 | 21d | $111.81 | $106.47 | -4.8% |
| AMGN | Amgen | Mar 26, 2026 | 12d | $353.25 | $339.99 | -3.8% |
| STLD | Steel Dynamics | Mar 24, 2026 | 13d | $169.67 | $176.50 | +4.0% |
| BKR | Baker Hughes Company | Mar 18, 2026 | 12d | $57.48 | $60.66 | +5.5% |
| PLD | Prologis | Mar 24, 2026 | 3d | $130.34 | $128.89 | -1.1% |
| ON | ON Semiconductor | Mar 16, 2026 | 11d | $59.87 | $58.38 | -2.5% |
| LYV | Live Nation Entertainment | Mar 26, 2026 | 1d | $150.06 | $145.73 | -2.9% |
| FTV | Fortive | Mar 18, 2026 | 9d | $54.84 | $53.92 | -1.7% |
| DOV | Dover | Mar 17, 2026 | 9d | $213.86 | $209.18 | -2.2% |
| CHRW | CH Robinson | Mar 25, 2026 | 1d | $169.66 | $167.63 | -1.2% |
| VTRS | Viatris | Mar 18, 2026 | 2d | $13.73 | $13.20 | -3.9% |
| TXN | Texas Instruments | Mar 10, 2026 | 10d | $197.49 | $187.14 | -5.2% |
| ITW | Illinois Tool Works | Mar 17, 2026 | 1d | $267.80 | $260.76 | -2.6% |
| EBAY | eBay | Feb 19, 2026 | 18d | $84.74 | $92.94 | +9.7% |
| DLTR | Dollar Tree | Feb 04, 2026 | 19d | $121.82 | $130.43 | +7.1% |
| L | Loews | Jan 27, 2026 | 14d | $102.30 | $109.95 | +7.5% |
| BAC | Bank of America | Jan 29, 2026 | 12d | $53.05 | $55.40 | +4.4% |
| HIG | Hartford Insurance | Jan 27, 2026 | 13d | $130.29 | $139.36 | +7.0% |
| CB | Chubb | Jan 26, 2026 | 14d | $303.50 | $326.15 | +7.5% |
| LVS | Las Vegas Sands | Jan 14, 2026 | 6d | $59.88 | $58.52 | -2.3% |
| INTC | Intel | Dec 29, 2025 | 18d | $36.66 | $46.96 | +28.1% |
| PSX | Phillips 66 | Jan 02, 2026 | 11d | $130.54 | $137.71 | +5.5% |
| KKR | KKR & Co | Jan 05, 2026 | 8d | $134.58 | $130.12 | -3.3% |
| VLO | Valero Energy | Dec 23, 2025 | 20d | $164.76 | $179.57 | +9.0% |
| BKR | Baker Hughes Company | Dec 23, 2025 | 20d | $45.19 | $47.94 | +6.1% |