The bond market is closed today, which is convenient, because yesterday the ten-year said something the equity side would rather not hear again. Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's Wednesday, November 11, 2026.
October consumer prices rose four tenths on the month, core three tenths for the third month running, and the market finally did arithmetic it had been avoiding since summer. December is a hike. Not a possible hike. Futures have it fully priced, and Christopher Waller spent the morning before the print explaining the conditions under which he would want fifty basis points, after which the print met them. Lorie Logan wants two more quarter points after that. The S&P closed down about four tenths and the Nasdaq about seven, which for a market that just repriced the whole direction of policy is the reaction of a man told his flight is delayed ninety minutes.
Today the ten-year cannot reply. Full close, on SIFMA's recommendation, so the yield sits wherever Tuesday left it, just under five percent or just over, depending on your screen. Cash Treasuries do not trade again until Thursday. Nasdaq futures are up around a percent and a half before the bell with Intel (INTC) leading, so equities get a whole session to trade a macro number while the asset class that prices macro is away. A one-sided conversation.
There is no annual inflation rate this month. The BLS could not collect prices in October 2025 because the government was shut, so where the year-over-year figure belongs there is a hole. A colleague in Geneva used to mark missing cells in his risk sheet red, on the theory that somebody would be shamed into filling them. I left that job in 2019. They were still red. The model ran every morning regardless, and it was not a bad model.
Nvidia (NVDA) is down about nine and a half percent in two sessions, which has nothing to do with chips. Its board opened an independent investigation into reporting that its founder was the target of a foreign intelligence effort, and Huang told staff he had fallen short. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Broadcom (AVGO) each added about three percent.
Ahead: nothing. Banks shut, bonds shut, no data worth the name, and a thirty-year auction tomorrow that will say more than today's calendar. Producer prices and retail sales come later in the week, by which point nobody will pretend the data decided the hike.
On our own book, no single position earned a paragraph this morning, which is worth saying plainly. The Mosaic Mid-Horizon sleeve is down about nine tenths of a percent over the past five sessions, against the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at six tenths, total return. Slightly behind, in a week when being long anything was a mild inconvenience. It is a sleeve, and it behaves like one.
Gold is near $4,041.67, though sources disagree by fifteen dollars either way, WTI settled at $86.04 and Brent at $91.49, Bitcoin is around $73,300 after shedding a couple of percent, and the ten-year is frozen near five percent until Thursday, the only instrument getting a holiday it never asked for.
The Fed is about to raise rates into a number with a year missing from it. See you tomorrow.
Salomon