Fifty percent tariffs on Canada took effect at midnight, and S&P futures moved two tenths of a percent. Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's Monday, August 24, 2026.
Talks collapsed before the deadline. Mark Carney said the Americans asked too much and offered too little, called the tariffs a miscalculation, then told his own country it is at war with its largest trading partner. Retaliation lands September 8, dollar for dollar, dairy and appliances and pulp and paper. Le tout-Wall Street answered by marking Nasdaq futures down half a percent, nudging Nvidia ($NVDA) lower before the bell, and going back to sleep. Elsewhere Scott Bessent announced on X that "at dawn begins an economic D-Day," which he described as the single greatest financial offensive ever marshaled against an adversary, and he unveils the Iran package this afternoon. Crude fell. WTI is off about 1.6 percent, Brent down 1.4, because the tape has learned to price the press conference rather than the policy. Translation: we have seen this film, we remember the third act.
And yet everyone is pretending not to notice that neither war is today's actual story. The bond market is. The 10-year closed Friday at 4.74 percent, a twenty-month high, and futures now carry roughly one-in-three odds that September delivers a hike rather than a cut. Two straight weekly losses for the Dow, and Friday's 500-point rally changed none of the arithmetic: yields up, deficits up, AI issuance up, equity multiples still priced as though money were free. Who actually won last week? The people selling duration to the people who have to own it.
Ahead today, almost nothing, which is merciful. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 7:30 (prior minus 0.02, a number nobody has ever traded on), some bill auctions, and Bessent's D-Day this afternoon. The week is the thing: Intuit ($INTU) Tuesday, then Nvidia, Salesforce ($CRM) and CrowdStrike ($CRWD) Wednesday, PCE and durable goods and the annual revision to nonfarm payrolls after that, and Kevin Warsh delivering his first Jackson Hole keynote Friday on the theme of payments innovation. A new Fed chair, nineteen days from a live meeting, invited to discuss plumbing. He will say as little as possible, and the room will call it profound.
On the book, we closed AbbVie ($ABBV) last Thursday after six sessions, up 6.6 percent against an S&P that lost 1.3 over the same stretch. It crossed the weekly standard deviation, which is the exit, so it was the exit. The thesis was that the Humira cliff everyone spent three years dreading had already happened and the company grew straight through it. Being right that fast is mostly luck. The rule closed the trade, not conviction.
Gold around $4,655, still a long way below January's record. WTI $85.65. S&P futures near 7,691. The 10-year at 4.71 percent. Bitcoin near $77,300 after an eight percent day, because Washington said it approves, which is a peculiar foundation for an asset invented so that Washington's approval would not matter.
Two trade wars, a hawkish Fed, and a record high in nothing. The wonderful world of finance. Have a good one, and see you tomorrow.