Oil fell about eight percent on hopes the Iran war is ending, on the morning Washington is reportedly weighing whether to resume it. Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's Thursday, November 5, 2026.
Yesterday was the kind of session that makes a bad year look like a misunderstanding. Democrats took both chambers on Tuesday, and by Wednesday's close the Dow had added about three percent, its best day since April of last year and its first finish above 53,000 since September. The S&P closed up a percent and a half. The dollar sank to a two-month low, the ten-year came in eight or nine basis points, and crude settled down eight percent because the desks have decided a negotiated end to the war is the base case. The Vice President, by several accounts, blamed that war for his party's defeat.
What the celebration requires you not to look at is the ten-year, still near 4.9 percent. Divided government does not pay down debt. It means nothing passes, and nothing passing is not the same as spending less, while the interest bill compounds regardless. Nine basis points on a 4.9 handle is a shrug with better manners.
Gold is the part I keep turning over. It is near 4,135 this morning, its best level since late October, bought hard by the same people who just announced political uncertainty was resolved. Through October, gold and bitcoin were the two worst-performing major assets of the year, which Charlie Bilello noted has never happened before. Fifteen years of being told those two are the hedge, and in the year everything went strange they came last. In September I argued over a long lunch near the Rhone that the Iran premium in crude was structural, a permanent new floor. Eight percent in a day. I am not going to dress that up.
Nasdaq futures are off about a percent while Dow futures are higher, which is one way of saying a Democratic Congress writes the AI rules. Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and the data-center names were sold overnight. Apple (AAPL) printed a record.
Ahead today: jobless claims at 8:30, consensus near 196,000 against 194,000 last week, and Beth Hammack at 8:50. It is all a waiting room for tomorrow's payrolls, where the street wants 40,000 jobs.
No single trade earns this paragraph today, which is itself worth saying. The Mosaic Mid-Horizon sleeve is shaped around a core, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) at 38 percent, with eight percent each in momentum, US small-cap value and quality, six percent each in gold, developed international and Israel, and five percent blocks in semiconductors, energy, Asia and international small value. It last moved in August. The reshaping toward more Asia and lower fees is still underway.
Levels, with the caveat that this morning's prints disagree more than I would like: gold around 4,135 an ounce, WTI at 88.12 after Wednesday's settlement, bitcoin between 77,000 and 80,500 depending whose screen you trust, S&P futures roughly flat, the ten-year near 4.89 percent. Bitcoin, the hedge against monetary disorder, now quoted with error bars.
The market has decided gridlock is thrift and a ceasefire is a fact. One of the two is at least checkable.
Have a good one. Salomon