The record
Track record
Every position I have closed, with the date I opened it and the date I closed it. Winners and losers, in one table, kept in full. The thesis behind each one is written for members.
Closed picks
233
Win rate
68%
Avg return
+5.1%
Avg hold
15d
How these numbers are made
This is the whole record. Every position I have closed since inception, in the order it closed. Nothing is withheld and nothing is selected.
Return is the exit price against the entry price, gross. No fees, no slippage, no tax, no position sizing. These are per-position returns, not the return of a portfolio.
Closed positions only. What I hold today is not here, and it is not counted in any figure above.
One name measured against the index over its own short holding window tells you very little, so I do not print that column. The comparison that means something is at the portfolio level.
Shape of the record
Where the closed positions landed. An average hides whether a record came from many steady gains or one outlier.
- < -20%11 position
- -20 to -10%00 positions
- -10 to 0%7474 positions
- 0 to 10%113113 positions
- 10 to 20%3838 positions
- 20 to 50%77 positions
- 50%+00 positions
| Ticker | Company | Entry date | Held | Entry | Exit | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VMC | Vulcan Materials | Sep 13, 2024 | 11d | $237.48 | $249.88 | +5.2% |
| DOW | Dow Inc | Sep 17, 2024 | 14d | $51.51 | $54.53 | +5.9% |
| DPZ | Domino's Pizza | Sep 06, 2024 | 25d | $408.67 | $430.86 | +5.4% |
| APA | APA | Sep 16, 2024 | 24d | $24.45 | $26.34 | +7.7% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings | Sep 18, 2024 | 22d | $143.18 | $172.26 | +20.3% |
| GOOG | Alphabet Class C | Sep 12, 2024 | 28d | $155.59 | $163.09 | +4.8% |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Class A | Sep 12, 2024 | 28d | $154.70 | $161.82 | +4.6% |
| MGM | MGM Resorts | Sep 12, 2024 | 28d | $35.91 | $40.19 | +11.9% |
| MU | Micron | Sep 12, 2024 | 28d | $87.20 | $101.69 | +16.6% |
| SLB | Schlumberger | Sep 16, 2024 | 24d | $40.39 | $44.22 | +9.5% |
| SNPS | Synopsys | Sep 12, 2024 | 28d | $489.26 | $528.94 | +8.1% |
| STLD | Steel Dynamics | Sep 13, 2024 | 27d | $112.76 | $130.18 | +15.4% |
| BX | Blackstone Group | Oct 11, 2024 | 11d | $153.06 | $168.46 | +10.1% |
| COR | Cencora | Oct 08, 2024 | 14d | $220.80 | $234.19 | +6.1% |
| UHS | Universal Health | Oct 14, 2024 | 8d | $220.43 | $232.51 | +5.5% |
| MSFT | Microsoft | Oct 10, 2024 | 21d | $415.76 | $406.30 | -2.3% |
| FSLR | First Solar | Oct 25, 2024 | 12d | $198.51 | $194.23 | -2.2% |
| SWK | Stanley Black & Decker | Nov 04, 2024 | 4d | $94.38 | $90.17 | -4.5% |
| TECH | Bio-Techne | Oct 28, 2024 | 11d | $70.37 | $75.95 | +7.9% |
| COP | Conocophillips | Oct 30, 2024 | 13d | $102.96 | $110.64 | +7.5% |
| HAS | Hasbro | Nov 05, 2024 | 7d | $66.97 | $63.41 | -5.3% |
| DUK | Duke Energy | Nov 11, 2024 | 3d | $112.54 | $110.61 | -1.7% |
| MAS | Masco | Nov 05, 2024 | 9d | $81.78 | $79.56 | -2.7% |
| SLB | Schlumberger | Nov 05, 2024 | 9d | $40.54 | $43.47 | +7.2% |
| TDG | Transdigm Group | Nov 05, 2024 | 9d | $1338.56 | $1271.73 | -5.0% |
| TSLA | Tesla | Oct 24, 2024 | 21d | $260.54 | $311.16 | +19.4% |
| HAL | Halliburton | Oct 31, 2024 | 15d | $27.74 | $29.69 | +7.0% |
| UHS | Universal Health | Nov 07, 2024 | 8d | $208.35 | $201.63 | -3.2% |
| VLO | Valero Energy | Nov 01, 2024 | 18d | $128.18 | $144.02 | +12.4% |
| EOG | EOG Resources | Oct 31, 2024 | 19d | $121.97 | $136.56 | +12.0% |
| PSX | Phillips 66 | Nov 05, 2024 | 14d | $121.83 | $131.32 | +7.8% |
| BF.B | Brown-Forman B | Nov 15, 2024 | 4d | $40.82 | $40.21 | -1.5% |
| NKE | Nike | Nov 05, 2024 | 14d | $77.99 | $73.92 | -5.2% |
| MPC | Marathon Petroleum | Oct 31, 2024 | 20d | $145.47 | $159.36 | +9.5% |
| NEM | Newmont Mining | Nov 14, 2024 | 11d | $40.67 | $42.46 | +4.4% |
| PG | Procter & Gamble | Nov 08, 2024 | 19d | $167.72 | $179.37 | +6.9% |
| AMT | American Tower | Nov 15, 2024 | 17d | $196.43 | $207.35 | +5.6% |
| AKAM | Akamai | Nov 21, 2024 | 14d | $91.12 | $97.42 | +6.9% |
| LVS | Las Vegas Sands | Nov 19, 2024 | 16d | $49.17 | $53.86 | +9.5% |
| MTD | Mettler-Toledo | Nov 22, 2024 | 19d | $1217.97 | $1270.83 | +4.3% |
| AVGO | Broadcom | Dec 02, 2024 | 16d | $166.50 | $223.15 | +34.0% |
| SRE | Sempra Energy | Dec 16, 2024 | 2d | $88.63 | $85.10 | -4.0% |
| IP | International Paper Co | Dec 16, 2024 | 15d | $55.78 | $53.81 | -3.5% |
| BF.B | Brown-Forman B | Jan 14, 2025 | 2d | $34.44 | $34.09 | -1.0% |
| SYY | Sysco | Jan 15, 2025 | 2d | $74.00 | $73.06 | -1.3% |
| AES | AES | Jan 27, 2025 | 1d | $11.44 | $11.02 | -3.7% |
| BKNG | Booking Holdings | Jan 15, 2025 | 13d | $4826.20 | $4681.48 | -3.0% |
| HST | Host Hotels & Resorts | Jan 14, 2025 | 14d | $17.29 | $17.04 | -1.4% |
| EFX | Equifax | Jan 14, 2025 | 15d | $252.36 | $271.18 | +7.5% |
| PANW | Palo Alto Networks | Jan 14, 2025 | 15d | $170.50 | $185.42 | +8.8% |