The record
Track record
Every position I have closed, with the date I opened it and the date I closed it. Winners and losers, in one table, kept in full. The thesis behind each one is written for members.
Figures above reflect the current filter. Clear
Closed picks
75
Win rate
0%
Avg return
-3.2%
Avg hold
9d
How these numbers are made
This is the whole record. Every position I have closed since inception, in the order it closed. Nothing is withheld and nothing is selected.
Return is the exit price against the entry price, gross. No fees, no slippage, no tax, no position sizing. These are per-position returns, not the return of a portfolio.
Closed positions only. What I hold today is not here, and it is not counted in any figure above.
One name measured against the index over its own short holding window tells you very little, so I do not print that column. The comparison that means something is at the portfolio level.
Shape of the record
Where the closed positions landed. An average hides whether a record came from many steady gains or one outlier.
- < -20%11 position
- -20 to -10%00 positions
- -10 to 0%7474 positions
- 0 to 10%00 positions
- 10 to 20%00 positions
- 20 to 50%00 positions
- 50%+00 positions
| Ticker | Company | Entry date | Held | Entry | Exit | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | Microsoft | Oct 10, 2024 | 21d | $415.76 | $406.30 | -2.3% |
| FSLR | First Solar | Oct 25, 2024 | 12d | $198.51 | $194.23 | -2.2% |
| SWK | Stanley Black & Decker | Nov 04, 2024 | 4d | $94.38 | $90.17 | -4.5% |
| HAS | Hasbro | Nov 05, 2024 | 7d | $66.97 | $63.41 | -5.3% |
| DUK | Duke Energy | Nov 11, 2024 | 3d | $112.54 | $110.61 | -1.7% |
| MAS | Masco | Nov 05, 2024 | 9d | $81.78 | $79.56 | -2.7% |
| TDG | Transdigm Group | Nov 05, 2024 | 9d | $1338.56 | $1271.73 | -5.0% |
| UHS | Universal Health | Nov 07, 2024 | 8d | $208.35 | $201.63 | -3.2% |
| BF.B | Brown-Forman B | Nov 15, 2024 | 4d | $40.82 | $40.21 | -1.5% |
| NKE | Nike | Nov 05, 2024 | 14d | $77.99 | $73.92 | -5.2% |
| SRE | Sempra Energy | Dec 16, 2024 | 2d | $88.63 | $85.10 | -4.0% |
| IP | International Paper Co | Dec 16, 2024 | 15d | $55.78 | $53.81 | -3.5% |
| BF.B | Brown-Forman B | Jan 14, 2025 | 2d | $34.44 | $34.09 | -1.0% |
| SYY | Sysco | Jan 15, 2025 | 2d | $74.00 | $73.06 | -1.3% |
| AES | AES | Jan 27, 2025 | 1d | $11.44 | $11.02 | -3.7% |
| BKNG | Booking Holdings | Jan 15, 2025 | 13d | $4826.20 | $4681.48 | -3.0% |
| HST | Host Hotels & Resorts | Jan 14, 2025 | 14d | $17.29 | $17.04 | -1.4% |
| EW | Edwards Lifesciences | Jan 28, 2025 | 7d | $72.55 | $71.35 | -1.7% |
| ROST | Ross Stores | Jan 29, 2025 | 9d | $150.25 | $142.69 | -5.0% |
| ETN | Eaton | Feb 18, 2025 | 3d | $313.11 | $297.30 | -5.0% |
| HUBB | Hubbell B | Feb 18, 2025 | 3d | $395.71 | $377.44 | -4.6% |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Class A | Mar 04, 2025 | 7d | $170.94 | $164.01 | -4.1% |
| J | Jacobs Solutions | Feb 28, 2025 | 11d | $128.11 | $122.15 | -4.7% |
| PRU | Prudential Financial | Feb 25, 2025 | 14d | $111.13 | $105.59 | -5.0% |
| ULTA | Ulta Beauty | Feb 21, 2025 | 18d | $361.62 | $342.60 | -5.3% |
| META | Meta Platforms | Mar 12, 2025 | 7d | $619.38 | $612.50 | -1.1% |
| CAT | Caterpillar | Feb 26, 2025 | 22d | $342.80 | $336.46 | -1.9% |
| GEHC | GE Healthcare Technologies Inc | Mar 10, 2025 | 17d | $85.36 | $81.65 | -4.3% |
| VST | Vistra Corp | Mar 12, 2025 | 15d | $121.92 | $119.29 | -2.2% |
| VTRS | Viatris | Mar 17, 2025 | 10d | $9.26 | $8.97 | -3.1% |
| WAB | Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies | Mar 07, 2025 | 20d | $179.29 | $169.57 | -5.4% |
| EXC | Exelon | May 16, 2025 | 12d | $44.08 | $43.28 | -1.8% |
| LII | Lennox International | Jun 10, 2025 | 3d | $555.16 | $537.64 | -3.2% |
| CNP | Centerpoint Energy | Jun 23, 2025 | 9d | $36.26 | $35.76 | -1.4% |
| COST | Costco | Jun 23, 2025 | 9d | $1004.64 | $982.02 | -2.3% |
| IT | Gartner | Jun 24, 2025 | 8d | $400.33 | $395.54 | -1.2% |
| FE | FirstEnergy | Jun 12, 2025 | 21d | $40.66 | $39.72 | -2.3% |
| MRNA | Moderna | Aug 14, 2025 | 11d | $26.69 | $25.35 | -5.0% |
| GEN | Gen Digital | Sep 09, 2025 | 3d | $29.47 | $29.12 | -1.2% |
| PNW | Pinnacle West Capital | Sep 11, 2025 | 6d | $88.36 | $86.11 | -2.5% |
| ROP | Roper Technologies | Sep 18, 2025 | 7d | $508.90 | $493.20 | -3.1% |
| KO | Coca-Cola | Sep 18, 2025 | 8d | $66.42 | $65.64 | -1.2% |
| CMCSA | Comcast | Sep 26, 2025 | 4d | $31.72 | $31.40 | -1.0% |
| CPAY | Corpay Inc | Sep 29, 2025 | 1d | $295.84 | $288.01 | -2.6% |
| AWK | American Water | Sep 23, 2025 | 9d | $137.18 | $135.57 | -1.2% |
| INVH | Invitation Homes | Sep 30, 2025 | 3d | $29.32 | $28.64 | -2.3% |
| UDR | UDR | Sep 30, 2025 | 6d | $37.24 | $36.02 | -3.3% |
| DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Oct 03, 2025 | 4d | $103.04 | $97.98 | -4.9% |
| GDDY | GoDaddy | Oct 06, 2025 | 4d | $137.21 | $130.69 | -4.8% |
| HSIC | Henry Schein | Oct 09, 2025 | 7d | $64.56 | $61.99 | -4.0% |
MSFT
FSLR
SWK
HAS
DUK
MAS
TDG
UHS
BF.B
NKE
SRE
IP
SYY
AES
BKNG
HST
EW
ROST
ETN
HUBB
GOOGL
J
PRU
ULTA
META
CAT
GEHC
VST
VTRS
WAB
EXC
LII
CNP
COST
IT
FE
MRNA
GEN
PNW
ROP
KO
CMCSA
CPAY
AWK
INVH
UDR
DECK
GDDY
HSIC