The thirty-year Treasury sits near a nineteen-year high, and Wall Street spent the night celebrating Nvidia's guidance instead.
Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's Thursday, August 27, 2026.
Yesterday's close was a study in polite boredom. The S&P 500 finished at 7,675.70, essentially unchanged, the Dow gave back 113.52 points to 53,463.88, the Nasdaq shed a rounding error, and the culprit was July PCE: headline at 3.7 percent, a tenth above consensus, core stuck at 3.3 percent for the fourth month of no meaningful progress. Translation: the Fed's preferred gauge has stopped preferring anything. Then the bell rang and Nvidia ($NVDA) reported $96.2 billion of revenue, up 106 percent, guided the current quarter to $108 billion against $104 billion expected, and had its CFO talking about 70 percent growth in fiscal 2028, all of it assuming precisely zero data center sales into China. The stock is up around 6 percent before the bell, Salesforce ($CRM), CrowdStrike ($CRWD) and Okta ($OKTA) are up double digits, and le tout-Wall Street has decided the inflation print never happened. And yet this is the same month the Treasury doubled its debt buybacks, watched the relief evaporate inside twenty-four hours, and is now reportedly eyeing the general account for more ammunition, with the long bond parked above 5.2 percent. Everyone is pretending not to notice that the discount rate on all those glorious 2028 tokens went up too. Who actually won here? Nvidia's shareholders. The soft landing crowd is claiming the trophy anyway.
Ahead of us, weekly jobless claims at 8:30, coming off 206,000, a number that has been stubbornly, almost insultingly fine all summer and will be forgotten within nine minutes of printing. Marvell ($MRVL) reports after the close, having guided to roughly $2.7 billion and about 35 percent growth, and the only thing anyone actually wants to know is where the Google contract shows up in the numbers. Everything else today is Nvidia's echo. If claims come in soft, watch how fast the same people cheering infinite compute demand rediscover their tender affection for rate cuts.
On our own book, Edison International ($EIX), taken as a starter ten sessions ago, is up 8 percent while the S&P 500 is down eight tenths of a percent over the same stretch. The position was deliberately small, because the range of outcomes around the Eaton Fire liability is far too wide for confidence, and it is the sizing rule doing the work here rather than any cleverness on my part. That is the whole report.
Elsewhere, gold is a bit above $4,600 an ounce, though quotes were thirty dollars apart depending on which screen you trusted overnight, so take the decimals with salt. WTI is near $81.40 and Brent $86.90, a fourth straight session lower, because Iran and Oman have agreed how to divide the revenues of a strait that Tehran says is still not reopening. Bitcoin sits around $78,500 after touching $81,235 on Tuesday. S&P futures are up half a percent, and the ten-year yields 4.65 percent, down from 4.75 last Friday.
One chip company just underwrote the mood of an entire market for a week. The bond market will have its say regardless, probably at the least convenient moment. Have a good one, and see you tomorrow.