Marvell beat, raised guidance twice, and lost seven percent in the time it takes to read the press release.
Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's Friday, August 28, 2026.
Thursday was a party. Nvidia ($NVDA) rose 8 percent on an earnings beat and a promise that AI demand keeps humming through next year, the Nasdaq added 1.57 percent to 26,541, the S&P 500 put on 0.72 percent to 7,730.99, and le tout-Wall Street decided the bubble question had been settled by one quarterly print. Marvell ($MRVL) spent that same session up 8 percent of its own on an expanded Google partnership. Then it reported: revenue up 37 percent to a record $2.74 billion, earnings a penny ahead of the Street, the full-year outlook lifted to roughly $12 billion and the fiscal 2028 target to $18 billion. The stock fell 7 percent after hours to $224.34, because management clarified that the Google money mostly arrives in fiscal 2029. Translation: the beat was real, the waiting was not on the menu. Who actually won there? Nobody who bought at four o'clock.
And yet. While the room congratulated itself on the AI trade, the 10-year yield climbed for a second straight session to about 4.66 percent, core PCE printed 3.3 percent for July against a 2 percent target, and the market now assigns roughly a one-in-three chance that the Fed raises rates in three weeks. Everyone pretends not to notice.
Kevin Warsh takes the podium at Jackson Hole at ten, his first keynote as chair, three months into a job in which he has conspicuously stopped telling anyone what comes next. The wise men of the committee already dissented three ways in July, Hammack, Kashkari and Logan all voting to hike, the first such split since 2016. Chicago PMI at 9:45, final Michigan sentiment at ten, the same survey that fell about 8 percent this month and which nobody will mention after 10:01. It is the Friday before Labor Day. Half the desk is already gone, and the other half will pretend the speech changed their mind.
On the book: Corteva ($CTVA), held seven sessions, up 5.7 percent against 0.5 percent for the S&P 500 over the same stretch. One ticker wrapped around two businesses, seed genetics and crop chemistry, which the company separates on October 1. That is the entire note. A week of being right about an agricultural conglomerate is not a personality, and the credit belongs to the setup, not to the man reporting it.
Elsewhere, gold sits near $4,602 an ounce, which is the market writing a letter it refuses to admit sending. WTI is around $82, though my quotes this morning disagree by a dollar, so call it a neighborhood rather than an address, and it is remarkable oil is even there while Washington promises the greatest financial offensive ever against Iran and Tehran talks about seizing ships in Hormuz. Bitcoin is near $80,000, the debasement trade that forgot to show up to its own theme. S&P futures are off about a tenth of a percent, Nasdaq futures down three tenths, the Dow faintly green, the 10-year at 4.66.
A man who refuses to explain himself, in a room full of people paid to guess. Stay sharp, and see you Monday.