Letters

August 31, 2026 · Morning Chronicle·≈ 2 min read

Hormuz is worth one tenth of a percent

Wall Street books its best month since May today, three days after its own Fed chair explained why he may have to raise rates. Good morning and welcome to today's market…

August 28, 2026 · Morning Chronicle·≈ 3 min read

The hike nobody wants to say out loud

Marvell beat, raised guidance twice, and lost seven percent in the time it takes to read the press release. Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's Friday,…

August 27, 2026 · Morning Chronicle·≈ 3 min read

Compute is revenue, the long bond is patient

The thirty-year Treasury sits near a nineteen-year high, and Wall Street spent the night celebrating Nvidia's guidance instead. Good morning and welcome to today's market…

August 26, 2026 · Morning Chronicle·≈ 3 min read

The chaperone at the long end of the curve

The Treasury is buying its own bonds back to calm the long end, and Wall Street has decided tonight's important number comes from a chip company. Good morning and welcome to…

August 25, 2026 · Morning Chronicle·≈ 3 min read

Everyone is watching Nvidia instead of the long end

The Treasury is now buying its own bonds to keep the long end quiet, and gold is having its best month since 1999. Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's…

August 24, 2026 · Morning Chronicle·≈ 3 min read

Economic D-Day, and crude fell anyway

Fifty percent tariffs on Canada took effect at midnight, and S&P futures moved two tenths of a percent. Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's Monday, August…

August 21, 2026 · Morning Chronicle·≈ 3 min read

The buyback that only gold believed

Walmart beat on earnings, raised its outlook, and lost nearly ten percent because its own shoppers are being squeezed at the pump. Good morning and welcome to today's market…

August 19, 2026 · Morning Chronicle·≈ 3 min read

The bond market is doing the tightening for them

Three Fed officials voted to hike rates in July, and Wall Street has spent three weeks explaining why that does not count. Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle.…

August 18, 2026 · Morning Chronicle·≈ 3 min read

Nobody is pricing the hike except the bond market

Trump threatened to bomb Oman over a shipping lane, and Brent crude moved about a tenth of a percent. Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's Tuesday, August…

August 17, 2026 · Morning Chronicle·≈ 3 min read

Reddit joins the S&P 500!

Reddit joins the S&P 500 tomorrow because two apartment landlords merged, and every index fund in America must now buy it at any price. Good morning and welcome to today's market…

August 14, 2026 · Morning Chronicle·≈ 2 min read

Nobody told the consumer about the record

The S&P 500 closed at a record above 7,800 because the Federal Reserve probably will not raise rates, which is a curious thing to celebrate. Good morning and welcome to today's…

August 13, 2026 · Morning Chronicle·≈ 3 min read

Warsh, the hawk the market keeps discounting

Wall Street spent yesterday celebrating a 3.4 percent inflation print, a number that in 2019 would have been called an emergency. Good morning and welcome to today's market…

August 12, 2026 · Morning Chronicle·≈ 3 min read

Payrolls fell, and the argument is still about hiking

Iran now issues passage permits for the Strait of Hormuz, sixty one commercial ships have been attacked since March, and crude is lower this morning. Good morning and welcome to…

August 11, 2026 · Morning Chronicle·≈ 2 min read

The unemployment rate fell, for the worst reason

Crude jumped five percent yesterday on a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, and the S&P 500 closed down 0.06%.Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's…

August 10, 2026 · Morning Chronicle·≈ 2 min read

The inflation print, brought to you by a closed strait

The American economy shed 23,000 jobs in July and the S&P 500 answered with a record close, which tells you precisely whose problem unemployment is not. Good morning and welcome…

August 7, 2026 · Morning Chronicle·≈ 2 min read

The rate hike the war left behind

Gold is having its best week since January because the war is ending, which is not how any of this is supposed to work. Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's…

August 3, 2026 · Morning Chronicle·≈ 2 min read

The long end is screaming, Wall Street shrugs

Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's Monday, August 3rd. Wall Street closed July at record highs and the 30-year Treasury closed it at the highest yield…

July 30, 2026 · Morning Chronicle·≈ 2 min read

Microsoft buys back Wall Street's amnesia

Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's Thursday, July 30, 2026. The Fed just voted to do nothing, three of its own governors screamed for a hike, and Wall…

July 28, 2026 · Morning Chronicle·≈ 2 min read

The machine everyone swore Beijing could not build

Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's Tuesday, July 28, 2026. The great American AI cathedral spent the night discovering that the acolytes in Seoul had set…

July 24, 2026 · Morning Chronicle·≈ 2 min read

Gold had one job during a war

Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's Friday, July 24, 2026. Oil is on fire, gold is running away from the fire, and the Federal Reserve is apparently…

July 23, 2026 · Morning Chronicle·≈ 2 min read

Clapping for capex while the oil keeps climbing

Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's Thursday, July 23, 2026. Eleven straight rounds of American strikes on Iran, oil clawing higher by the day, and the S&P…

July 22, 2026 · Morning Chronicle·≈ 2 min read

The war everyone insists is already priced

Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Brent is trading with a war premium, and le tout-Wall Street has decided the war is a…

July 20, 2026 · Morning Chronicle·≈ 2 min read

The rookie at the Fed nobody is watching

Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's Monday, July 20, 2026. Ninth consecutive night of American ordnance falling on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz blockaded…

July 15, 2026 · Morning Chronicle·≈ 2 min read

Cool CPI, hot crude, and a hawkish encore

Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's Wednesday, July 15, 2026. Inflation cooled, and somehow we are still bombing an oil producer, but let us not spoil the…

July 14, 2026 · Morning Chronicle·≈ 2 min read

Uncle Donald opens a toll booth on Hormuz

Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's Tuesday, July 14, 2026. On Bastille Day the mob storms a fortress, and here the leader of the free world storms a…

July 13, 2026 · Morning Chronicle·≈ 2 min read

The ceasefire that shoots back, and oil yawns

Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's Monday, July 13th. The ceasefire held all weekend, right up until the moment both sides started shooting again, and…

July 9, 2026 · Morning Chronicle·≈ 2 min read

Gold down, yields up, and no cavalry

Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's Thursday, July 9, 2026. The ceasefire lasted about as long as one of Uncle Donald's attention spans, and oil noticed…

July 8, 2026 · Morning Chronicle·≈ 2 min read

The Fed flirts with hikes, Wall Street looks away

Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's Wednesday, July 8th. The Fed is whispering about hikes while Wall Street counts its best quarter since 2020, and…

July 7, 2026 · Morning Chronicle·≈ 2 min read

Records by day, cockroaches by night

Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's Tuesday, July 7, 2026. Wall Street printed a record yesterday and Asia spent the night trying to give it back, which is…

July 6, 2026 · Morning Chronicle·≈ 2 min read

Gold at a record, Bitcoin still apologizing

Good morning and welcome to today's market chronicle. It's Monday, July 6, 2026. Wall Street comes back from its hot dogs and fireworks to discover that nothing was solved, only…